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Tuesday, March 08, 2005
The Lebanese Puzzle
by Eugene Bird
The blowup in Lebanon is going to affect the peace process in Palestine
almost as much as the election of Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas). A Zogby
poll and two insightful commentaries by Juan Cole and Justin Raimondo
give some real clues to what might happen in the Middle East in the
next few months as a result of the assassination of Rafiq al-Hariri.
Last week's Zogby
International-Information International poll of the Lebanese
confessional groups indicates that there is a sort of rough consensus
for both the withdrawal of Syrian forces and the deployment of
strengthened Lebanese army and security forces to fill the vacuum.
The rallies and counter-rallies in Beirut could turn very mean, given
the long history of confessional strife between Christian Maronites,
Sunnis, like Rafiq al-Hariri, and the large Shi'a minority. Meanwhile
the
Orthodox Christians and the Druze, according to the poll, are just as
cynical about what might happen in the immediate future. The poll by
Zogby did not cover the 300,000 Palestinians, who seem thus far to be
standing
aside and waiting to see what happens.
When asked what is the solution to the security situation in Lebanon,
48% of Maronites said it was the removal of Syrian troops, but 20% said
it was to reinforce and deploy the Lebanese army and security forces
throughout the country. The two actions could reasonably occur in
tandem. Strangely enough, 22% of the Maronites (the most pro-Western
group) believe that either Israel or the United States is responsible
for the assassination of former Prime Minister al-Hariri. Only 17% hold
Syria responsible.
More than a third of the Shi'a (35%), who are almost a majority in
Lebanon and are traditional allies of Syria, believe the Syrian army
should depart. And by 52%, they want the Lebanese government army to be
strengthened and redeployed. Added together, nearly 90% want Syrian
withdrawal or redeployment of troops. Orthodox Christians by a vote of
23% want the Syrian troops to leave and by a vote of 52% want a
redeployment of Lebanese troops. The Sunnis believe that the security
situation can be solved by the departure of the Syrian troops (31%) or
by redeploying Lebanese government troops (47%). The Druze are the only
group in Lebanon to not show at least a significant minority who wish
to strengthen and deploy the Lebanese forces (5%). While their support
for Syrian withdrawal is moderate (24%), a large majority (60%) instead
favors disarming all armed forces in Lebanon, which none of the other
groups supports by more than 17%.
While we await further developments, two excellent analyses may help
provide some perspective. Juan
Cole, history professor at the University of Michigan, sees the
Syrian occupation of Lebanon in the larger context of modern terrorism.
Cole argues that whatever the Bush administration may believe about the
ability of democracy to quell terrorism, history teaches the lesson
that terrorism is only able to thrive in weak states and among those
humiliated by foreign occupation.
As for who killed Rafiq al-Hariri, Justin Raimondo
of Antiwar.com argues that America and the Arab world are each falling
for their own pet conspiracy theory. While the United States blames
Syria and the Arab world points to Israel, Raimondo follows the
evidence to the likely, if
less politically satisfying,
culprit: Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and his al-Qaeda supporters.
If the rallies by the Maronites, Druze, Sunnis, and Orthodox and the
counter-rallies by Hizbollah do not end in a renewal of civil strife,
then the peace process in Palestine will be the winner. If serious
civil
strife does develop, the losers will be Abu Mazen and President George
W. Bush.
Council for the National Interest
posted by Somebody @ 7:11 PM Permanent Link
 
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